Background: Post the patent of IC engine driven tricycle by Carl Benz in 1896, in Germany, when the automotive industry was struggling to evolve across the globe, Henry Ford in 1910 brought revolutionary concepts of “moving conveyors” & “interchangeability of parts” changed the centuries-old world of the craft manufacturing system into the age of “Mass Production”. However, another path-breaking transition in manufacturing was brought in by Eiji Toyoda & Taiichi Ohno of Toyota Motor Company brought in 1950, with the concept of “Lean Manufacturing” (also known as JIT Manufacturing or Toyota Way of manufacturing). This philosophy was dramatically opposite to the Mass Production system of manufacturing. It was such a pathbreaking idea that even after 70 years in practice, it is still contemporary and has become synonymous with 20th-century industrialization. It has found its application in a wide range of processes from IT to logistics to education. Over time, the automotive industry became a major industrial and economic force in several countries. Automobiles are probably one of those mass-manufactured products till date (& will continue to be so) around which, functioning of a large number of other industries (both upstream & downstream) such as steel, aluminum rubber, glass, copper, paint, chemical & plastic, fuel, recycling to name a few thrive. No wonder, the automobile industry is globally known as the “industry of industries”.
The automotive industry is one of the major contributors to the global economy which leads the global growth. The annual turnover of the automotive industry is at par with the size of the 6th largest economy in the world. The industry is capital-intensive, drives innovation and generates billions of dollars in turnover, and creates millions of jobs, both in manufacturing processes and also during its cradle-to-cradle life span.
Yet, over the last 120 years of its existence the manufacturing processes in the automobile world, have become more or less standardized and have not changed much except allowing integration of information & digital technology, e.g. Toyota’s proven “Kanban” system of the 1960s which was purely running on the electromechanical system, has now been replaced with much faster, IT enables systems.
Despite the proven history of “Lean Manufacturing”, the Covid pandemic did expose its vulnerability as the finetuned & thin global supply chains were badly damaged during this period. It was when the WEF, coined a new idea of “The Great Reset” asking industries to look for a change in the now-aging “Lean Manufacturing Process”, advising all global manufacturers to evolve a new, more advanced & resilient manufacturing system utilizing Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning for making themselves more agile & self-correcting while responding to expected & unexpected changes anywhere in the whole ecosystem of manufacturing while seamlessly integrating with upstream & downstream sub-systems. This could mean setting up Giga Factories having complete backward & forward integration (similar to what Henry Ford’s River Rouge Complex built between 1917~1928) but this integrating which has started sometime in 2010, with digitalization, heralding a new era of advanced Automotive manufacturing (Industry 4.0). With the integration of technologies such as big data, advanced analytics, Artificial intelligence (AI) & Machine Learning (ML), integrating complex sensor technologies using IoT/ IIoT, cloud computing, Blockchain, cyber-physical systems, robotics, and 3D printing, the automobile manufacturing is now fast moving towards “Industry 5.0”. While on one side, these smart factories, can manage multi models lines and their complex logistics, the existing core manufacturing technologies of automobile making, such as welding, painting & assembly robots are also getting digitalized with collaborative robots (cobots- that can work alongside humans on the factory floor). Such advancements are already altering the automobile manufacturing process. The automotive sector is today the largest user of robots/ cobots amongst the manufacturing industries, accounting for 30 percent of total installations. Apart from manufacturing processes, these technologies are also getting integrated into the complex supply chain network of automotive manufacturing to improve the logistics flow.
A Glimpse of Future of Automobile Manufacturing:
Despite the fact, as stated above, over the last 120 years of automobile manufacturing, all the processes of automobile manufacturing are more or less standardized, and probably, no major concept evolved after Henry Ford’s two revolutionary ideas e.g. “Moving Assembly Line” and “Interchangeability Of Parts” in early 1910 and later “JIT’ of Toyota I 1950s.
However, since their inception the automobile manufacturing always had a great appetite for adopting to new technologies yet there was a vacuum after 1950. So, when IT revolution came with cloud computing, big data analytics to advanced robotics/ cobotics for increasing the productivity & efficiency while reducing the human intervention in order to get competitive edge, the automobile makers were the first one to jump into utilizing sophisticated technologies, such as AI (artificial intelligence), IoT (the internet of things), IIoT (industrial Internet of Things) and 3-D printing/ manufacturing among others, were shaping the future of manufacturing by lowering the cost of production, improving the speed of operations and minimizing errors. Since productivity is critical to the success of an automotive manufacturing, every automobile manufacturer is expected to make significant investments in these technologies.
Out the many of the newer IT enables technologies above, 3D printing/ manufacturing is the one which needs special attention with respect to automotive manufacturing while on a broader scale three other non IT related technologies are also gaining attention. These manufacturing technologies are related to hard core manufacturing practices, and cover a) application of new age composite materials, b) unibody casting of body shell, c) “skateboard” chassis for future EVs & d) ADAS supporting manufacturing. There are briefly explained below:
- 3D Printing/ Manufacturing: Though the 3D printing process was invented in 1980, only in recent times (2020), the 3D printing & manufacturing technology has come to the age. While 3D printing may not be taking over the entire manufacturing industry in near future yet, it is predicted that by 2024 it will have a market worth US$17 Billion. It is one of those new technologies, which is already proving vital in the design studios as well as on the factory floors alike and is going to completely transform automotive manufacturing in the times to come. As a cost-effective solution for prototyping, functional testing, vehicle customization, design optimization & rapid tooling. It is becoming a critical tool for engineers in all walks of automotive manufacturing in vehicle designing, creating a prototype, testing, mass production, tooling, and customization. While with time, many more applications getting discovered utilizing 3D printing/manufacturing, which is being tested and implemented virtually every day. Its potential to impact the automotive industry is just beginning. Automobile manufacturers & parts suppliers are quickly adopting 3D printing/ manufacturing1 to lower the costs, improve efficiency & productivity and reduce the model change time as well time to reconfigure the automotive supply chain. It is worth mentioning here that it was in 2014 when the United States-based Local Motors2 produced the world’s first 3D-printed EV, consisting of only 50 individual parts, compared to almost 30,000 in a traditional vehicle.
- Application of New Age Composite Materials3: Most probably it all started in 1905 when Henry Ford is said to have discovered the vanadium steel alloy, which was not only lighter than ordinary steel but also almost three times stronger & used in his Model T which made it superior to all the other vehicles then prevailing in American market. From then onwards, automobile manufacturers have always been one of the very first to utilize any of these new-age materials to reshape the automobile manufacturing process as well as automobiles, themselves. These continuously evolving new-age materials are also quite useful in creating complex and elaborate body shapes for the automobiles with least wastage and effort. In long run, utilization of these advanced materials is also making the automobile a better product to manufacture, drive, to handle during its operational life and to recycling at its EOL. However, many of these new age materials, while being used, also bring associated challenges in the automobile manufacturing processes as well as during the life of automobiles. These challenges could vary from impact of environment to social to technical, adding more complex handling, processing & utilization processes during the manufacturing with creation of new treatment, storage & handling systems to mitigate their impact during the complete life cycle of the automobiles.
- Modularization In Automobile Manufacturing: However, much bigger changes in automotive manufacturing are expected when the present mobility system shift from ICEVs to EVs (as of now the EVs have hardly 2.2% market share), since it would be a complete shift, both technologically & manufacturing capability wise, in which about 31% of the components and related manufacturing processes (related mostly to the IC engine and related transmission of ICEVs), will be eliminated. In the context of EVs, apart from present, age-old configuration, in which the IC engine is simply replaced with an electric drive under the hood, while the battery pack is mounted below the body, an Israeli technology firm, REE Automotive4 is trying to redesigned the basic structure of EVs (remember original ladder type chassis used in initial cars!5) and bringing an “skateboard” EV chassis which is only a stake board platform containing only the batteries whereas their wheel units developed by them are called REEcorner. Each REEcorner is completely independent, integrating critical vehicle components (steering, braking, suspension, powertrain and control) into a single compact module. The combination of Skateboard chassis (with mounted batteries), associated ECU & BMS, and REEcorners can be used to create any combination of EV platforms while the EV maker has to only mount and integrate the vehicle shell with this platform for creating a fully functional EV. This concept of using flexible & expandable battery-based platforms for all kinds of vehicles (2w, 3w, 4w, multi-wheel and multi-axle) would be a new technology to watch.
- Unibody Casting of Body Shell: Another big change, which is expected in the automobile manufacturing process is the way the “white body or the shell” of the future automobiles are made. This new process is already being pursued by Tesla6 and uses the single-piece casting method (a method already being used in the making of small car toys). Telsa has already filed a patent for this “Multi-Directional Unibody Casting Machine for a Vehicle Frame and Associated Methods” in 2018 & is already using two of these Giga Presses7, first one of these is a 6,000-ton Giga Press to cast the one-piece rear end of Model Y car and the one-piece front end of Model Y car while the second one is 8,000 tons Giga Press to cast the rear part of Tesla’s Cyber Truck. In due course, using the upgraded Giga presses of 12,000 Ton Capacity from IDRA (Italy), Tesla plans to make full-casted vehicle bodies in one piece. With such a machine, the production of the body can be much more economical, faster, and easier. According to information from the source, the production in this machine can reduce the time spent on car production by 25%. In addition, a 10% reduction in downtime is expected. As stated, when this new manufacturing process of Car shell (white body), becomes poplar and proves its worth, and giant unibody casting machines is commercialized, it would eliminate more than 100s of intermediate processes in automobile manufacturing e.g. pressing & welding in of sheet metals to create sub- assemblies which again are welded using multiple jigs & fixture to make final shell (white body). This is a technology, which has the possibility not only to eliminate many of the present intermediate processes in automobile manufacturing, it can also take the present automobile manufacturing to the next level. Elon Musk had also tweeted sometime back on these Giga presses, “With our giant casting machines, we are trying to make full-size cars in the same way that toy cars are made.”
- ADAS Supporting Manufacturing: The Assisted driving (ADAS) is another disruptive IT technology which is already being increasingly used in automobiles for improving the road safety both in EVs & ICEVs. However with the complexities & legalities involved, it may take many more years when the automobiles can move from present primitive Level 2 or 3 of ADAS to most advanced ADAS level 5. However, this would only be a connectivity & control change technology which may not be needing much changing the future of automobile manufacturing processes but certainly, they become more effective & relevant on EVs due to better controls & responses of electrical system compared to electro-mechanical system of ICEVs. With time, the evolution of CAEVs (Connected & Autonomous EVs) is not far off. These would be automobiles, capabilities to see, hear, think and take human like decisions while self-driving on the roads. The manufacturing processes of these future CAEVs are yet to evolve as it would not be a simple physical assembly of automobiles because these would be intelligent & smart EVs with almost human line decision making capabilities and any manufacturing error would have having far-reaching impact on our social lives.
Epilogue: As the society moves from present-day ICEVs to EVs to futuristic CAEVs, and the more complex technologies evolve to configure future automobiles, with time the automobile manufacturing processes are also going to change drastically from what we see today. While, only time will tell if the merging of the two most critical emerging manufacturing technologies (Skateboard platform & its full-fledged single wheel drive units as well as the die-casted Unibody shell) would be able to alter the face of automobile manufacturing in the times to come or they will fall apart like many others in the past. All automobile makers are certainly keep a close watch on them. On the other side, PWC is one of its reports describes that the future of automobile manufacturing would be focusing on key factors like Electrical/ Autonomous/ Shared / Connected/ Yearly Updation & calls it “EASCY”. However, this transition to “EASCY” will be extremely challenging for the present day of the automotive industry leaders, as in this change, no one knows, how many of the traditional manufacturing processes would get eliminated, while it is certain the many new processes will be getting introduced. The present-day OEM with their supply chain will have to fight out these survival battles in the times to come to overcome many unforeseen challenges arising in the new market of the future. With the recent rise of EVs, this battle for survival of fittest in automotive manufacturing has already begun – & when the dust settles done in the next few years, we will be able to judge the survivors, their strategies & approaches and then some of them may find themselves standing in the league of Henry Ford & Toyota, to guide the next wave of automotive manufacturing in coming century.
Prabhat Khare
EVP-Lithion Power Pvt. Ltd.
BE (Electrical), Gold Medalist, IIT Roorkee
Ex Tata Motors, Ex Honda Cars, Ex Ashok Leyland
Email: prabhat.pkmail@gmail.com/ khareprabhat@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: http://in.linkedin.com/in/prabhatkhare2
Ref:
1. A road map to the future for the auto industry.pdf (McKinsey Quarterly, Oct’14)
2. Research Insights-Automotive 2030-Racing towards a digital future (IBM)
3. The future of work in the automotive industry: The need to invest in people’s capabilities and decent and sustainable work (ILO, Feb’2021)
4. The Future of the EU Automotive Sector (Study Requested by the ITRE committee, October ‘2021)
